by 
It’s been 217 days since Warriors Y celts shared a flat at TD Garden.
That matchup ended in celebration for Golden State, which captured another NBA title. It was heartbreak for Boston.
The C’s, winners of seven in a row, have the best record in the league and have been dominant at home this season. The Dubs enter Thursday’s contest at .500 with a dismal record on the road. These teams were in similar situations when they met in San Francisco in December and the Warriors won, 123-107. Stephen Curry Y klay thompson combined for 66 points in the win and jayson tatum he finished with 18 points, his second lowest production of the year.
jaylen brown, who led Boston in scoring with 31 points in a loss to Golden State, is questionable with a groin injury. He missed the last three games and scored a season-high 41 points last time out. The Warriors will be without James Wiseman (ankle), Jonathan Kuminga (foot), JaMychal Green (leg) and Andre Iguodola (hip).
The Celtics are 5.5-point favorites at home and have been favored in every game at the TD Garden this season. Boston was a 2.5-point favorite on the road in the first meeting.
Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Odds
Hour: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time | T.N.T.
Spread: Warriors +5.5 (-110) | Celts -5.5 (-110)
money line: SG (+188) | SOB (-225)
Total: 238.5 — More than (-110) | Less (-110)
Warriors Betting Profile
direct registration: 22–22
Against the propagation log: 20–23-1
Over/Under Record: 26–17–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 117.5 (4)
Points Allowed Per Game (Range): 117.9 (26)
Celtics Betting Profile
Direct registration: 33–12
Against the propagation log: 26-19
Plus/minus log: 22–21–2
Points Per Game (Rank): 118.8 (2)
Points Allowed Per Game (Range): 112.3 (11)
Spread bet: Celtics -5.5 (-110)
This choice depends on whether Brown plays. He was the C’s best player earlier in the year against the Warriors and that was the case consistently throughout the Finals as well. Boston has won its last three without Brown, who is in the middle of a career year, but against questionable competition: the networks sans Kevin Durant and the hornets twice.
Both teams enjoyed two full days of rest before this big game. Golden State last played Monday in Washington, DC, the third leg of its five-game road trip. The Warriors won that contest, 127-118, behind 41 of Curry, who returned from a shoulder injury last week. The Celtics wrapped up their brief road trip Monday in Charlotte in a game in which Tatum finished with 51 points.
Against the best offense in the NBA, Golden State’s defense presents a liability, especially if Brown is on the court. He held on in the first meeting, largely due to Tatum’s poor performance. And the advantage the Warriors have in most matchups beyond the three-point line is largely offset by the Celtics’ outside shooting, which is on par with their own.
If Brown is ruled out, take the Dubs plus the points. If you are active, bet on Boston to even the series.
There’s one weird but notable stat worth noting for both sides: The Celtics are 1-7 against the spread (ATS) with two to three days’ rest this season, the second-worst mark in the league. The Warriors are 6-5 in such games.
Keep that in mind and keep an eye on Brown’s condition.
Bet Over/Under: Over 237.5 (-110)
The expectation is fireworks when these two offenses take the floor, evidenced by this sky-high total. The over has hit in Golden State’s last four games and his offense has scored at least 125 in every contest. He has hit less frequently for Boston of late, although they did score 248 points in his last game. These teams combined for 230 in December and that was a bad night for Tatum and the offense as a whole.
Both teams are in the top five in points per game and rank first and second in three-pointers per game. Also, in 21 away games this season for the Warriors, the over has been hit 16 times (with a push), the highest rate in the league. And in as many home games for the Celtics, the over has struck 14 times (with one push), tied for the third-highest rate in the NBA.
This is the perfect storm for a shootout.
Prop Bet: Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Assists (-105)
This feels like an underpriced accessory more than anything. Close to Thompson’s odds, that he’s averaging just 2.5 assists per game this season and less in his career? Sign me up. This is, of course, a low total to clear and some easy looks or dishes for Curry in the first quarter could turn this into sweat (or loss) pretty quickly. And Thompson has actually surpassed this total in each of his last two games with four apiece. But those games are atypical for his season-long attendance numbers. Against Boston earlier in the year he shot 26 times and finished with two assists. Expect more of that for Thompson, who had a hot hand in January.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council on Problem Gambling. 1-800-522-4700.
